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If the start of the Big Ten men’s basketball season looks suspiciously like last year’s, there’s nothing wrong with your TV.
Purdue was the clear favorite from start to finish in 2022-23, and everyone else was bunched up in a race for second. Ditto 2023-24, when the Boilermakers got 24 of the 28 first-place votes in the preseason media poll, with Michigan State getting the other four.
Now Zach Edey and the top-ranked Boilermakers — whose only loss came at the hands of Northwestern last month — take on No. 9 Illinois in a made-for-March showdown Friday in West Lafayette, Ind. (7:30 p.m., FS1).
Edey is averaging 23.1 points and 10.3 rebounds for Purdue (13-1, 2-1), remaining a force field that’s difficult to defend.
“You just don’t see 7-4 and 300 pounds,” Illinois coach Brad Underwood told reporters Thursday in Champaign. “In my time in college basketball, I’ve never seen a more dominant center.”
Until recently, the Illini (11-2, 2-0) figured to have the best chance of anyone in the conference to upend Purdue, thanks to the return of star guard Terrence Shannon Jr. But Shannon’s suspension while facing a rape charge in Kansas immediately changed the outlook for the season.
Few expected Illinois could overcome such a loss; Shannon was seventh among Division I scorers at 21.7 points per game through Wednesday. One voter in the Associated Press poll even dropped the Illini out of his top 25 without them losing a game, a prediction they would melt before the heat even got turned up.
Whether Marcus Domask changed anyone’s mind in the last few days remains to be seen. But the transfer from Southern Illinois stepped up Tuesday with a 32-point, six-assist performance in a rout of Northwestern, providing a bit of optimism in the aftermath of Shannon’s suspension.
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The Illini are 2-0 without Shannon, including a 33-point win over Fairleigh Dickinson, the program that ousted top-seeded Purdue in the first round of last year’s NCAA Tournament, becoming media darlings and extending the Boilermakers’ reputation as a not-ready-for-prime-time team. This wasn’t the same FDU team, but at least the Illini handled the Knights.
Coleman Hawkins must take on more of a leadership role in Shannon’s absence, and Justin Harmon’s energy and shooting off the bench has to continue to keep Illini Nation off the ledge — a place it often frequents this time of year.
Illinois is 3-20 overall against No. 1 teams and 0-8 in road games. The last time it beat No. 1 was in 2013 — a 74-72 win over Indiana at the State Farm Center. This is also the Illini’s highest ranking in the first week of January since they moved to No. 6 on Jan. 2, 2006.
The Big Ten race is just beginning and it’s hard to make judgments based on November and December. But to the naked eye, Purdue, Ohio State and Wisconsin appear to be the three best teams and everyone else is playing for fourth.
Michigan State was pronounced dead last month after a loss to Nebraska left the Spartans 0-2 in the Big Ten and 4-5 overall. But they had won four straight entering Thursday’s game against Penn State, proving it’s never wise to underestimate a Tom Izzo-coached team.
Still, it’s Purdue that everyone looks up to — and Edey that everyone literally looks up to. That disastrous loss to Fairleigh Dickinson last March left a scar on the Boilermakers that won’t heal for years, but so far they’ve responded the way they needed to and Edey again will be in the Player of the Year conversation after winning the award in 2022-23.
The improvement of sophomores Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer has taken some of the pressure to score off Edey, who often is defended in “hack-a-Shaq” fashion.
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“He’s probably more dominant than he was last year, in my opinion,” Underwood said. “He’s a guy that forces defense to react to him, and everyone else gets to play off him.”
Purdue coach Matt Painter reminded reporters last week that Edey didn’t play organized basketball until he was 16, preferring hockey and baseball while growing up in Toronto.
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“For a big guy, he’s got a level of toughness to him,” Painter said. “And he’s got some sense about him and he kind of understands (the game now). ... He’s got a bright future.
“You’ve got to understand, when you start playing basketball when you’re 5 or 6, by your seventh or eighth year, you’re a middle schooler. He’s a middle schooler. That’s where he’s at from an improvement standpoint. So he’s not going to plateau.
“He’s got a lot that probably (he doesn’t show). He can shoot the basketball. But if you’re shooting 3s, shooting perimeter shots ... we want people in foul trouble and want him to get to the line and steal points.”
It’s hard to imagine Edey as a middle schooler, but Painter made his point. Edey is getting better through experience, though he has a ways to go to show he’s NBA-ready.
Nothing the Boilermakers can do in the regular season really matters unless they advance far in the NCAA Tournament and live up to their hype. They can’t turn around their reputation until March Madness begins, so this is just another game to them.
The Illini are hoping to build a reputation of their own with their biggest star gone and skeptics waiting for them to disappear.
Making a statement Friday at Mackey Arena would go a long way toward accomplishing that.